Commodities Face Diverging Risks as Fed, Hormuz Diplomacy Loom

Commodities ended a volatile week split between hawkish US rate expectations and fragile Middle East diplomacy. Gold fell about 2% below $4,300 an ounce and silver dropped 3%, while Brent crude held near $104.5 after Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi missiles. Markets now price roughly a 65% chance of a 25bp October Fed hike, with payrolls and Fed speakers the next test.